Representation and Accountability II

Carolina Torreblanca

University of Pennsylvania

Global Development: Intermediate Topics in Politics, Policy, and Data

PSCI 3200 - Spring 2025

Agenda

Dunning et al. (2019)

Barriers hindering accumulation


What is accumulation?

  • Building knowledge across studies

What makes it difficult?

  • Limited replication
  • Heterogeneity of design and measurement
  • Publication bias

Barriers hindering accumulation

Facilitating accumulation


What solutions are discussed by the authors?

  • Pre-registration
  • Harmonizing theory, measurement, and estimation
  • Publication of null results

Facilitating accumulation

Models of political accountability

Accountability requires that voters:

  • Observe credible signal of performance
    • Attribution
    • Benchmarking
  • Update their beliefs
  • Have credible alternatives

Models of political accountability

What does the literature say?

  • Theory is mixed
    • Partisan and sectarian attachments are strong
    • Voters may be reluctant to update their beliefs
  • Experimental results are mixed
    • Demobilization
    • Limited recall
    • Ephemeral effects

Research Design

Intervention

  • Information on political performance
    • Legislative behavior
    • Spending irregularities
    • Budget allocation
    • Candidate experience

Research Design

Accountability requires that voters:

  • Observe credible signal of performance
    • Attribution
    • Benchmarking
  • Update their beliefs
    • Good news: \(Q > P \mid 1(P = Q, Q > med(Q) )\)
  • Have credible alternatives

Ecological Validity


  • How is information disseminated?
  • What is the real world activity being tested?

Describing Information

Problems hindering accumulation

Research Design


Core hypotheses:

  1. Good news increases voter support for incumbents
  2. Bad news decreases voter support for incumbents
  3. Effect of information will increase with gap between Q and P
  4. Strongest for nonpartisan and non-coethnic voters

Findings

Why the null results?

  • Source credibility?
    • No…
  • Lack of retention
  • Lack of updating on politician performance
  • Lack of updating about politician quality
  • Lack of coordination (private treatment)

Statistical Power


Null results were not “foregone conclusion”?

  • 80% power
  • Change the vote of 5/100 voters
  • Change turnout of 4/100 voters

Findings

Findings

Findings

Policy Implications


  • Much of the work funded by donors is probably not having an impact on accountability
  • Targeting of information provision needs to be rethought
    • Public dissemination and coordination